Tag Archive for 'Economy'

Financial Wellness for 2010 & Beyond – Plastic Revisited

Published by JS Wolff on February 2, 2010 in Economy and Financial Education. 1 Comment Tags: , , , .

Just last week, the Senate approved legislation increasing the federal government’s borrowing limit by $1.9 trillion.  When signed into law the federal government will be able to borrow more money than at any time in our country’s history, making our total national debt a mind numbing $14.3 trillion.  And this will only allow us to pay our bills through 2010!

Using credit for money

Putting this into perspective, according to the Heritage Foundation the federal government will take in an estimated $2.19 trillion of taxes in 2009.  Simple math tells us that owing $14.3T while collecting “only”$2.19T is not a recipe for fiscal health. So last week’s vote was essentially the Senate’s way of literally, passing the buck.  Recent groundbreaking election results indicate that American’s are telling elected officials to stop this madness.

But maybe leading by personal example is the best way to initiate national change. Instead of raising our personal credit card limits and unsecured debt as many Americans have done in the last decade; let’s consider taking a retro approach to plastic. Prior to the introduction of the binge inducing revolving card, the standard plastic issued was known as a “charge card”.  And now this concept is coming back.

What’s the difference? As opposed to revolving credit cards, most charge cards require payment in full at the end of each month.  If you can’t pay, typically a late fee is charged.  So while old habits are hard to break, after a few late fees you start to think long and hard before putting something in the shopping cart.

Charge cards can be less risky for both consumers and card issuers.  For the consumer, it’s obviously more difficult and painful to accumulate debt. Issuers like them because there’s less chance than with a revolving card that someone will be unable to repay them. There’s a much shorter leash.

So go ahead, buy anything you want and put it on the charge card, as long as you can pay for it by the end of the month. And then call your Senator to convey clear grass roots message…”I’m not buying stuff that I can’t pay for in 30 days, repeat after me!”

What’s in Your Financial Constitution?

Published by JS Wolff on May 25, 2009 in Economy, Financial Education and Financial Tools. 0 Comments Tags: , .

Voters in the state of California spoke loudly and angrily last Tuesday. After years of convoluted budget fixes, exotic borrowing schemes and skirting tough issues, Californians just said “no” to another series of band-aid fiscal ballot measures that just seemed like more of the same. Voter frustration has risen to such new levels that now there is even a movement to completely rewrite the State’s constitution to prevent the politicians from operating like credit drunk consumers.

“No Gold In State” was the title of this week’s article about California in The Economist magazine.  The article chronicled, “At one point during his desperate campaign for six ballot measures meant to reduce California’s gaping budget deficit, Arnold Schwarzenegger, the governor, pleaded with voters not to make California ‘the poster child for dysfunction.’ But on May 19th they did exactly that.”

The sludge-like layers of complexity that have become the California budgeting process all seem rooted in the inability of politicians to grasp the flow of money….basically economics 101.  And yet, when was the last time we heard someone running for office talk about their financial education or their qualifications for office because of their responsible economic track record?

Setting better boundaries by rewriting the State’s constitution may be a good start but I’m thinking our future depends upon something a little more homespun.  Let’s get this money thing right in our families. First, raise financially responsible kids and then later as adults we can send them off to run the government.

So parents, consider rewriting your family’s “constitution” to lend the same emphasis to money smarts as you do reading and math smarts. And the sooner, the better.  Scores of college kids get bushwacked by loans and credit card debt before they even graduate. A study conducted by The Project on Student Debt indicated that nearly half of all graduating college seniors enter their careers with 5 digit debt.

Helpful websites are popping up that simulate real life money situations and are targeted at the younger set.  A good example is Savings Quest which looks like it’s directed at the pre-teen – teen crowd.  In a colorful, narrated eLearning format, it walks the viewer through choosing a job, building a budget and saving for both short and long term goals. And importantly, even though it sort of feels game-like, the choices and resulting consequences can create some real life feelings.

Did I think it’s appropriate for pre-teen to teens? Sounds about right for those legislators in Sacramento.

Historical Worst Case Financial Planning

Published by JS Wolff on May 12, 2009 in Economy and Financial Education. 0 Comments Tags: , , .

I’ve talked to some pretty nervous investors recently…even with this latest uptick they’re not sure if they can ever trust the stock market again. With their fears being totally understandable, I decided to research an historical worst case scenario to help them evaluate the length of time they needed to be in the market to be reasonably assured that they wouldn’t  lose money.

This was accomplished by portraying someone who had decided to invest in the stock market just before the onset of the The Great Depression.  If we could ascertain how long it took this unfortunate soul to get their money back including the worst market years ever experienced, then it may be helpful to of us who are nervous to get back in the game.

First let’s look at some the characteristics of the Depression era market.  Interestingly, in the three years after the initial sell-off, there were five “bear market rallies” where the market rose more than 20%. All of these stock market highs were higher than the previous highs, and the following lows were lower than the previous lows.

So this must have been really frustrating and disorienting. Adding to the disorientation is that an average investor lost 35% of their assets six different times is the same three years.  Tragically, the final damage after all was said and done from 1929-1932 was a loss of over 90%!

Looking at this historical worst case, if someone had the great misfortune of buying into the market just before 1929 crash, it took someone about 10 years to get back to where they started. There have also been some great 10 year windows in the last 100 years. For example, there have been three 10 year periods that have produced annual average rate of returns of +18%.

Contrast this with an investor getting in just before 1929 but had only had a 5 year horizon, their average annual return would have been a loss of 16.4% per year!

So for those of us who want to make market decisions based upon the historical worst case, we might want a window of no less than 10 years as a minimum “time in the market” to feel comfortable we have little chance of getting out less than we initially invested.

The Data Invasion and Financial Health

Published by JS Wolff on March 30, 2009 in Economy and Financial Education. 0 Comments Tags: , , .

Seems like a repeat question that keeps coming up in my financial wellness sessions is, “what was different about the Great Depression than what we are experiencing now?” How about for a start…communication and data!

On January 27th, 1927, two years before the US economy fell off a cliff, inventor Philo T. Farnsworth applied for a patent that is now considered the official birth date of the television. Because this medium was still in its infancy in 1929, radio and newspapers were the only tools with the ability to reach the masses. But as we know, all of these mediums are only good for moving information one way.

Consider October of 1938, when the voice of actor Orson Welles was heard over the radio as he described a devastating Martian attack on the earth in the now infamous “War of the Worlds” broadcast. Over 1 million people, 20% of the listening audience believed this was actually occurring and literally panicked, some even contemplated suicide.

Probably not likely to happen in today’s www.world . If Orson tried to throw that same spiel our way, instantly, we could access vast resources and communities to verify that the Martians never left Mars and assure us that we will live to fight another day. Likewise, doesn’t the Web put us in a much better position to battle our way through this current economic invasion? Yes and no.

According to comScore Marketer, searches for several terms related to the economic downturn showed dramatic gains during the past year. Among the most notable increases were searches relating to the deteriorating job market, including searches using the term “unemployment” (up 206 percent to 8.2 million searches) and “unemployment benefits” (up 247 percent to 748,000 searches). Meanwhile, terms relating to personal asset situations, including “mortgage” (up 72 percent to 7.8 million searches), “bankruptcy” (up 156 percent to 2.6 million searches), and “foreclosure” (up 67 percent to 1.4 million searches) also grew strongly.

So I decided to throw myself on this pile and did a search on the word, “mortgage” Up popped a short list of 172 million entries. So yes it was helpful that I could access topical information so quickly, but on the other hand, without some way to filter this stuff, am I really that much further ahead? I don’t know about you, but I am not energized by 172 million options, quite the opposite, like those in 1938 who ran from the imagined Martian attack, I start to run for cover.

But all is not lost…this is an opportunity in all this. The key is to be equipped with some simple, personal financial frameworks that help us quickly sift through information and facilitate sensible decision making in good times and bad. I will cover some ways to get this done in my next entry.

Financial Health and Toxicity – Mutually Exclusive

Published by JS Wolff on March 23, 2009 in Economy and Financial Wellness. 1 Comment Tags: , , .

This week the government announced a new plan to rid the financial system of so-called “toxic assets”, a general term for assets that have exposed their holders to large losses. It is these assets that have paralyzed both the credit markets and the investor community from moving forward because, to date, no one has been able to determine the extent of their poisonous reach. So to restore some semblance of confidence, the government is proposing to build an entity to capture, hold and somehow try to sell these blemished instruments.

It looks like their overall framework for economic recovery encompasses two strategies. First, remove these black hole assets from institutional balance sheets to facilitate systemic solvency, focus and confidence. And secondly, refine the regulatory environment to support prudent lending practices going forward.

While no one’s sure if these measures will ultimately work…I do buy into the framework. It’s both reactive…dealing head on with the current crisis and proactive…creating an environment where it is less likely to happen again.
At a more personal level, there are certainly indicators that economic toxicity is trickling into our workplaces.

Early this year, the Society for Human Resource Management (SHRM), surveyed its members and confirmed the effects of economic stress.  In the previous 12 months, members had seen a 26 percent increase in employees having their wages garnished by collection agencies; a 39 percent increase in requests for 401 (k) plan loans; a 20 percent increase in requests for pay advances; and a 14 percent jump in employees reporting having lost their homes.

This is obviously not just somebody else’s problem. I recently asked a Fortune 1000 SVP of Human Resources if she believed the money worries were affecting the productivity of her workforce. Her response was swift and direct, “absolutely… I have no doubt that we are being negatively impacted.” And just as swiftly she has recently led her company to install a cutting edge financial wellness program. With this kind of win-win leadership, it’s no wonder that they are consistently named on all those “Best Places to Work” lists.

Facing the Fear Factor

Published by JS Wolff on January 23, 2009 in Economy, Financial Education and Financial Wellness. 0 Comments Tags: , , , .

In all my years of being hanging around with professionals that consider themselves to be financial experts, I’ve never found anyone who could provide a logical explanation for how and why markets move in one direction or another? But it seems that either a general climate of confidence or fear are certainly leading indicators.

For example, it is interesting that the markets pay close attention to a concept that is anything but logical or analytical. It’s called “consumer confidence.” Webster’s dictionary tells us that confidence is “a state of confident hopefulness that events will be favorable.”

As I write this entry, consumer confidence is challenged. In fact, on January 20th, ABC News released its weekly index on consumer confidence in the United States. In the last week, the Consumer Comfort Index fell to -53, from -49 in the previous week. The index ranges from -100 to +100 and its record low is -54, reached in the week to Dec. 1, 2008.

While this may seem like the bleakest of times, the need to communicate confidence to your workers has never been more important. It’s time to find innovative, not necessarily expensive, ways to instill confidence and clarity. With the collapse of Wall Street, plummeting real estate values and the general uncertainty of our economic system, staying focused at work becomes more challenging every day. Especially for those who have nagging questions about money issues and whether or not they will be ok.

In response, many HR and Benefits professionals have integrated leading edge financial wellness programs to help de-stress their employees during these tough times. In fact, a recent survey of employers conducted by the International Foundation of Employee Benefit Plans found that 43% of U.S. respondents offer financial education literacy programs for their workers.

Decisions like these speak to being proactive, playing offense…not just defense. They are decisions that confident HR/Benefits leaders make when the workforce is battle weary and distracted.

In his inaugural address, our new President alluded to such leadership in our first President, George Washington whom he quoted…

“Let it be told to the future world…that in the depth of winter, when nothing but hope and virtue could survive…that the city and the country, alarmed at one common danger, came forth to meet [it].”