Author Archive for JS Wolff

Page 2 of 3

What’s in Your Financial Constitution?

Published by JS Wolff on May 25, 2009 in Economy, Financial Education and Financial Tools. 0 Comments Tags: , .

Voters in the state of California spoke loudly and angrily last Tuesday. After years of convoluted budget fixes, exotic borrowing schemes and skirting tough issues, Californians just said “no” to another series of band-aid fiscal ballot measures that just seemed like more of the same. Voter frustration has risen to such new levels that now there is even a movement to completely rewrite the State’s constitution to prevent the politicians from operating like credit drunk consumers.

“No Gold In State” was the title of this week’s article about California in The Economist magazine.  The article chronicled, “At one point during his desperate campaign for six ballot measures meant to reduce California’s gaping budget deficit, Arnold Schwarzenegger, the governor, pleaded with voters not to make California ‘the poster child for dysfunction.’ But on May 19th they did exactly that.”

The sludge-like layers of complexity that have become the California budgeting process all seem rooted in the inability of politicians to grasp the flow of money….basically economics 101.  And yet, when was the last time we heard someone running for office talk about their financial education or their qualifications for office because of their responsible economic track record?

Setting better boundaries by rewriting the State’s constitution may be a good start but I’m thinking our future depends upon something a little more homespun.  Let’s get this money thing right in our families. First, raise financially responsible kids and then later as adults we can send them off to run the government.

So parents, consider rewriting your family’s “constitution” to lend the same emphasis to money smarts as you do reading and math smarts. And the sooner, the better.  Scores of college kids get bushwacked by loans and credit card debt before they even graduate. A study conducted by The Project on Student Debt indicated that nearly half of all graduating college seniors enter their careers with 5 digit debt.

Helpful websites are popping up that simulate real life money situations and are targeted at the younger set.  A good example is Savings Quest which looks like it’s directed at the pre-teen – teen crowd.  In a colorful, narrated eLearning format, it walks the viewer through choosing a job, building a budget and saving for both short and long term goals. And importantly, even though it sort of feels game-like, the choices and resulting consequences can create some real life feelings.

Did I think it’s appropriate for pre-teen to teens? Sounds about right for those legislators in Sacramento.

Have Financial Baggage?

Published by JS Wolff on May 18, 2009 in Economy and Financial Wellness. 0 Comments Tags: .

A few weeks ago I referenced the “Miracle on the Hudson” and how Captain “Sulley” Sullenberger’s Flight 1549 heroics can guide us during financial emergencies. You may recall that Sullenberger safely landed a commercial airliner on the Hudson River after hitting a flock of geese and losing both engines. I was intrigued by his success enough to study a few of the attributes that led to this amazing outcome.

All of us have baggage, some good and some not. Sulley packed incredibly good baggage for Flight 1549.  In his bags were years of serious and specific training. While he had no idea of how the events would unfold, the resources he packed proved perfectly suited for the situation. When the engines blew out two minutes into the flight, Sulley drew upon among other things:

  • 42 years of pilot training, he obtained his pilot’s license at age 14
  • an Air Force military jet fighter background
  • glider pilot experience- the US Airways airliner was essentially a glider after its total power loss
  • he was a flight safety expert – Sulley operated a flight safety school and had personally studied emergency cockpit behavior under stress.

In his own words… “One way of looking at this might be that, for 42 years, I’ve been making small regular deposits in this bank of experience: education and training…and on January 15, the balance was sufficient so that I could make a very large withdrawal.”

Financially speaking, 2008 was a wakeup call giving us insight into some of our baggage.  As it happens with almost any sustained market run up, the ascent that occurred from 2004 – 07 seemed readily sustainable.  The tech bubble was in the rear view mirror, a distant memory.

But while pilots like Sullenberger spend 80% of their post-licensing training simulating emergency situations, we tend to learn little from past financial 911′s. Anxious to make up the losses from the last crisis, at the first break in the clouds we open up the throttle and let her rip down the tarmac once again.

Maybe going forward we can learn to leverage some our experience to navigate a soft landing the next financial crisis. The first and most important step is to realize that it will happen again.  Perhaps keeping a percentage of our assets in a tax advantaged, conservative position equal to our age is how we should pack our investment bags going forward.

Historical Worst Case Financial Planning

Published by JS Wolff on May 12, 2009 in Economy and Financial Education. 0 Comments Tags: , , .

I’ve talked to some pretty nervous investors recently…even with this latest uptick they’re not sure if they can ever trust the stock market again. With their fears being totally understandable, I decided to research an historical worst case scenario to help them evaluate the length of time they needed to be in the market to be reasonably assured that they wouldn’t  lose money.

This was accomplished by portraying someone who had decided to invest in the stock market just before the onset of the The Great Depression.  If we could ascertain how long it took this unfortunate soul to get their money back including the worst market years ever experienced, then it may be helpful to of us who are nervous to get back in the game.

First let’s look at some the characteristics of the Depression era market.  Interestingly, in the three years after the initial sell-off, there were five “bear market rallies” where the market rose more than 20%. All of these stock market highs were higher than the previous highs, and the following lows were lower than the previous lows.

So this must have been really frustrating and disorienting. Adding to the disorientation is that an average investor lost 35% of their assets six different times is the same three years.  Tragically, the final damage after all was said and done from 1929-1932 was a loss of over 90%!

Looking at this historical worst case, if someone had the great misfortune of buying into the market just before 1929 crash, it took someone about 10 years to get back to where they started. There have also been some great 10 year windows in the last 100 years. For example, there have been three 10 year periods that have produced annual average rate of returns of +18%.

Contrast this with an investor getting in just before 1929 but had only had a 5 year horizon, their average annual return would have been a loss of 16.4% per year!

So for those of us who want to make market decisions based upon the historical worst case, we might want a window of no less than 10 years as a minimum “time in the market” to feel comfortable we have little chance of getting out less than we initially invested.

Listening to your Money and Financial Wellness

Published by JS Wolff on May 8, 2009 in Financial Tools and Financial Wellness. 0 Comments Tags: , , .

I’ve heard it said that you can tell a lot about a person by what they do with their wallet. In our life, I would say that’s pretty accurate.   A few years ago if someone went through our checkbook and debit card receipts, there is would be a pretty consistent pattern tracking what we value most highly.  Repetitive expenditures after essentials are traveling to hang out with our adult “kids”, charitable stuff and keeping my wife’s horticultural degree in bloom by regular visits to the local nursery.

After 2008, although our values didn’t change, it seemed time to be more intentional with our money.  While we didn’t want economic fear to dictate our lives the reality was, things were different. Both as a family guy and professionally, as a financial educator, I found myself wanting to reassess the foundations of my core money beliefs.

This led to researching and compiling four different tools to look at several personal financial indicators. And since collectively, the data really felt like a good reading of our financial vital signs, we started calling the suite of tools, “Money Pulse”.  Descriptions follow:

  • The Personal Financial Wellness Scale – Wanting to gauge our current level of financial stress we found this simple eight question survey authored by Dr. E Thomas Garman, a Virginia Tech professor.  The resulting composite score also benchmarks our results against national averages.
  • Risk Tolerance Assessment – most of us have done have taken one of these but we wanted to find one that was not associated with any financial provider.  We found one that was sort of fun to take and yet had a fairly deep scientific approach. It was developed by another Virginia Tech finance professor, Dr. Ruth Lytton at Virginia Tech and Dr. John Grable at Kansas State University.
  • Essential Spending – We use Quicken but it still can get complicated to track where our money is going. So we built a simplified spreadsheet that only provided two categories of expenditures designations …Essentials and Non Essentials.  We wanted to find out how little we could live on if need be and where we could save on non-essentials.  Hmm, in which column does a latte’ belong?
  • Dream Survey – With all this hunkering down talk is there do we have to give up our financial dreams? Good question but in the process of trying to answer it, we found out our money dreams were not very well defined.  So we came up with a few questions that prompted our thinking about a hoped for future …and chart a better course to reach our destination.

Going through the Money Pulse process required digging a bit deeper into our money beliefs and practices, but given that financial issues seem to weave into our lives on a daily basis, it felt right to better understand the story our money was telling us.

More About Sleeping at Night…a Personal Financial Stress Test

Published by JS Wolff on April 27, 2009 in Financial Education and Financial Wellness. 0 Comments Tags: , .

All of us have a distinct financial personality or what we call our “Money Pulse”, that is probably different than anyone else’s.  What you do or don’t do with your money in tough times says a lot about your core financial beliefs.  Often we get caught up in a herd mentality and we gravitate toward what others are doing. Consider Bernie Madoff and the famous people who invested millions without asking fundamental questions.  An economic crisis is not a time to follow the crowd…it’s a time to know yourself extremely well.

Very few of us have ever trained for or thought through a financial emergency…or any emergency for that matter.  My wife is a chaplain for the local county Sheriff’s department and through her experience, I have gotten a taste of what it means to be mentally and physically equipped for tough situations.   Last year, after 4 months of preparation, she was a part of the response team at a simulated school shooting.  Everything was planned to look like a real event.  Yes, it’s tragic that this kind of training is necessary and all involved hope they never have to use what they learned that day, but she is convinced that lives will be saved if…

Similarly, commercial pilots spend about 80% of their training time on emergency procedures. A recent example is the remarkable “Miracle On the Hudson”, where 155 airline passengers were saved in January due to Captain “Sulley” Sullenberger’s superior preparation and crisis management skills.  Sullenberger drew upon four key attributes during that eight minute flight which we can borrow to help us manage our money in tough times.  More about those in upcoming posts.

Sleeping Financially Well

Published by JS Wolff on April 21, 2009 in Economy and Financial Wellness. 0 Comments Tags: , , .

According to the 2008 American Psychological Association’s Stress in America survey, money is often on the minds of most Americans. In fact, the results revealed that money and the state of the economy are two of the top sources of stress for 80 percent of Americans. And symptomatically, one third of Americans reported losing sleep over the economy and personal finance concerns, according to a recent poll by the National Sleep Foundation.

Know that we have a problem and understanding what to do about it are miles apart… and even further removed can be actually changing our behavior.

Some believe that we should start making better financial citizens before they enter the workforce. Sharon Lechter, a member of the President’s Advisory Council on Financial Literacy is on a mission to see that every student receives some form of financial education. Her goal seems closer with the recent introduction of a Congressional bill that would require every college and university receiving federal funds to provide a four-hour course on financial literacy.

This strategy and may provide much needed money sanity for the next generation and prevent future financial meltdowns, but what about those of us who don’t have time to go back to college? Let’s get real simple…

In last week’s entry we talked about four buckets of money

- Essential, Now (less that 5 years)
- Non Essential, Now
- Essential Future (more than 5 years)
- Non-Essential Future

This week’s post addresses why did I selected five years as the tipping point between now and later. It has to do with the trust level I have for where I park the money and how much chance is there to lose it versus the opportunity for growth.

For example, there is historical evidence that I can’t trust the stock market to park my money for less than a 5 year period. To illustrate, let’s take a quick look at the best and worst stock market periods over 1, 5, 10 and 20 year periods.

Best Worst
1 Year +61% -39%
5 Years +30% -4%
10 Years +18.5% -1%
20 Years +18% +5.5%

Although this data is historical and not necessarily a predictor of future market activity, there is a huge difference between the 1 and 5 year swings. While I’m not willing to take the possibility of a 39% loss for money I need in the near term, the risk of a 4% loss over a 5 year period seems more palatable.

So how does this help me? Concluding that exposure to the stock market will only be for money uses outside of the next five years, I can concentrate on more conservative vehicles for near term needs and wants… and be one of the poll respondents who actually can get a good night’s sleep.

Beyond Financial Literacy

Published by JS Wolff on April 13, 2009 in Economy, Financial Tools and Financial Wellness. 0 Comments Tags: , , .

Turns out April is “Financial Literacy Month” and the National Foundation for Credit Counseling is weighing in by releasing the initial results of their third annual Financial Literacy survey. As this is currently a hot topic nationally, Congress will be briefed with the full report later this month.  They will hear, among other alarming statistics, that fully 41% of respondents gave themselves a grade of either “C, D or F” when it comes to understanding money and/or making good money decisions.  We are definitely not making the Dean’s List here.

So what’s the problem? Evidence suggests that economic and financial stress is damaging health across gender lines but apparently affecting women to an even greater degree. According to 2008 American Psychological Association’s Stress in America survey more women than men (84 percent to 75 percent) expressed fear about the economy, and many reported new physical and emotional symptoms, such as headaches, irritability, insomnia, fatigue, overeating and chest pain.

With this kind of evidence, why aren’t we more proactive in preventing this stress from taking such a toll on our health and wellbeing? We know that the medical side of the health/wellness movement took a dramatic turn as they discovered it was both healthier and less expensive to prevent disease than to treat it after onset. Similarly, ask anyone who has ever tried to dig themselves out of a financial hole, it is always more stressful and expensive to dig out of a money pit that stay out of one in the first place.

I’m convinced that much of the problem can be attributed to a couple of reasons…first, there’s too much financial information for us to process and secondly, the communication of money concepts are often overly complicated.  In the past few weeks, I have been discussing pros and cons having tons of data within clicking distance.  Information, and even education, is only valuable only if we have a simple way to determine its relevance to our personal situation and forge a confident, clear path toward decisive action.

So taking off from last week’s example where we looked breaking down a complex topic like Estate Planning by forming a few simple, high level questions, let’s consider something similar for managing money in tough times.

The big picture money questions in tough times are:

  • Do we need money for an essential expenditure or a non-essential expenditure?
  • Am I going to spend within the next 5 years or beyond the next 5 years?

I will explain the five year timeframe in the next blog, but with these simple questions we can create four buckets of money and form very straightforward action plans for each. The four buckets are…

  • Esssential, Now (less that 5 years)
  • Non Essential, Now
  • Essential Future(more than 5 years)
  • Non-Essential Future

Next week… walking through simple money management strategies for each of these buckets.

Financial Decision Support Frameworks – an Estate Planning Example

Published by JS Wolff on April 8, 2009 in Financial Education, Financial Tools and Financial Wellness. 0 Comments Tags: , .

Last week, I mentioned that two of the clear differences between our current economic crisis and the Great Depression are the interactive ways we now communicate and the staggering amount of data that is literally at our fingertips via the Web. Collectively these phenomena contribute to what I termed the, “data invasion”, meaning that, unless we have a way to filter, simplify, and personalize financial information we will probably not be much better off than they were in the 30′s… sort of dazed and confused.

In discussing the topic of Financial Wellness with the HR Director of a prominent Silicon Valley tech firm, she commented her employees had an almost universal reaction to the economic fallout of 2008… they were more or less frozen. That is, they didn’t know what to do, therefore did nothing and were financially stuck. In fact, she noted that they still are. This is precisely what happens when we don’t have a plan or framework to help us process the inevitable unpredictability of our financial life.

As a specific example, I’ll use what most of us would agree is a complex financial topic… Estate Planning. Responding to employee questions from corporate Estate Planning workshops over many years, common misconceptions about Estate Planning include that it only is a pertinent topic for wealthy people or that it is something that only needs to be addressed by the elderly. Both of these assumptions are just flat out incorrect and, of course, create barriers to take needed action.

So how can we build a simple Estate Planning framework that will help create the momentum we need to move forward? Start with the broadest questions. There are the three basic components that need addressing.

  1. Living Care – I’m still alive but I need care and management of my financial affairs
  2. Dependent Care – Whether alive or dead, I can’t care for those who depend upon me, who will and how?
  3. Assets – Who gets what and when?

These high level broad questions are the essence of Estate Planning and for that matter, building helpful frameworks. For example, if you don’t have documented, written answers to these Estate Planning questions, it is hopefully somewhat disturbing and should spur you to want to know the next steps. I recommend going one step further to own and internalize the required actions. How about, “whether alive or dead, I can’t care for my daughter, Tess… who will and how?”

Next week, a framework to help us with money management in tough times.

The Data Invasion and Financial Health

Published by JS Wolff on March 30, 2009 in Economy and Financial Education. 0 Comments Tags: , , .

Seems like a repeat question that keeps coming up in my financial wellness sessions is, “what was different about the Great Depression than what we are experiencing now?” How about for a start…communication and data!

On January 27th, 1927, two years before the US economy fell off a cliff, inventor Philo T. Farnsworth applied for a patent that is now considered the official birth date of the television. Because this medium was still in its infancy in 1929, radio and newspapers were the only tools with the ability to reach the masses. But as we know, all of these mediums are only good for moving information one way.

Consider October of 1938, when the voice of actor Orson Welles was heard over the radio as he described a devastating Martian attack on the earth in the now infamous “War of the Worlds” broadcast. Over 1 million people, 20% of the listening audience believed this was actually occurring and literally panicked, some even contemplated suicide.

Probably not likely to happen in today’s www.world . If Orson tried to throw that same spiel our way, instantly, we could access vast resources and communities to verify that the Martians never left Mars and assure us that we will live to fight another day. Likewise, doesn’t the Web put us in a much better position to battle our way through this current economic invasion? Yes and no.

According to comScore Marketer, searches for several terms related to the economic downturn showed dramatic gains during the past year. Among the most notable increases were searches relating to the deteriorating job market, including searches using the term “unemployment” (up 206 percent to 8.2 million searches) and “unemployment benefits” (up 247 percent to 748,000 searches). Meanwhile, terms relating to personal asset situations, including “mortgage” (up 72 percent to 7.8 million searches), “bankruptcy” (up 156 percent to 2.6 million searches), and “foreclosure” (up 67 percent to 1.4 million searches) also grew strongly.

So I decided to throw myself on this pile and did a search on the word, “mortgage” Up popped a short list of 172 million entries. So yes it was helpful that I could access topical information so quickly, but on the other hand, without some way to filter this stuff, am I really that much further ahead? I don’t know about you, but I am not energized by 172 million options, quite the opposite, like those in 1938 who ran from the imagined Martian attack, I start to run for cover.

But all is not lost…this is an opportunity in all this. The key is to be equipped with some simple, personal financial frameworks that help us quickly sift through information and facilitate sensible decision making in good times and bad. I will cover some ways to get this done in my next entry.

Financial Health and Toxicity – Mutually Exclusive

Published by JS Wolff on March 23, 2009 in Economy and Financial Wellness. 1 Comment Tags: , , .

This week the government announced a new plan to rid the financial system of so-called “toxic assets”, a general term for assets that have exposed their holders to large losses. It is these assets that have paralyzed both the credit markets and the investor community from moving forward because, to date, no one has been able to determine the extent of their poisonous reach. So to restore some semblance of confidence, the government is proposing to build an entity to capture, hold and somehow try to sell these blemished instruments.

It looks like their overall framework for economic recovery encompasses two strategies. First, remove these black hole assets from institutional balance sheets to facilitate systemic solvency, focus and confidence. And secondly, refine the regulatory environment to support prudent lending practices going forward.

While no one’s sure if these measures will ultimately work…I do buy into the framework. It’s both reactive…dealing head on with the current crisis and proactive…creating an environment where it is less likely to happen again.
At a more personal level, there are certainly indicators that economic toxicity is trickling into our workplaces.

Early this year, the Society for Human Resource Management (SHRM), surveyed its members and confirmed the effects of economic stress.  In the previous 12 months, members had seen a 26 percent increase in employees having their wages garnished by collection agencies; a 39 percent increase in requests for 401 (k) plan loans; a 20 percent increase in requests for pay advances; and a 14 percent jump in employees reporting having lost their homes.

This is obviously not just somebody else’s problem. I recently asked a Fortune 1000 SVP of Human Resources if she believed the money worries were affecting the productivity of her workforce. Her response was swift and direct, “absolutely… I have no doubt that we are being negatively impacted.” And just as swiftly she has recently led her company to install a cutting edge financial wellness program. With this kind of win-win leadership, it’s no wonder that they are consistently named on all those “Best Places to Work” lists.